Elías Cisneros

My research focuses on the causes and consequences of land-use change, deforestation, and conflict. I am a Marie Sklodowska-Curie postdoctoral fellow at the University of Göttingen and the University of Texas at Austin.

My work examines the role of local political incentives in deforestation for agricultural production in Brazil and Indonesia. I combine remotely sensed high-resolution data with market and political shocks to create large panels for causal identification. The research shows how local governments are a significant driver of land conversion and often collude with agricultural stakeholders. Therefore, central governments and non-governmental organizations must consider local political incentives when designing effective conservation instruments.

Working papers:

  • Cisneros, E., T. Hellmundt, and K. Kis-Katos (2022): Conflicts of rural transformation: The effects of oil palm expansion in Indonesia.
  • Cisneros, E., K. Kis-Katos, J. Priebe, L. Reiners (2022): Cash transfers and violent crime in Indonesian villages (available upon request).
  • Damm Y., E. Cisneros, and J. Börner (2022): Beyond deforestation reductions: Public disclosure, land-use change and commodity sourcing, SSRN (under review at World Development), https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4138439.
  • Cisneros E., and K. Kis-Katos (2022): Unintended consequences of anti-corruption strategies, SSRN (under review at Journal of Environmental Economics and Management) http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3899498.

Publications:

  • Seufert, J. D., A. Python, C. Weisser, E. Cisneros, K. Kis-Katos, and T. Kneib (2022): Mapping ex-ante spatial risks of COVID-19 in Indonesia using a Bayesian geostatistical model on airport network data, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (Statistics in Society), https://doi.org/10.1111/rssa.12866
  • Cisneros, E., J. Börner, S. Pagiola, and S. Wunder (2022): Impacts of Conservation Incentives in Protected Areas: The case of Bolsa Floresta, Brazil, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, 111: 102,572, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeem.2021.102572.
  • Correa, J., E. Cisneros, J. Börner, A. Pfaff, M. Costa, and R. Rajão (2020): Evaluating REDD+ at subnational level: Amazon Fund impacts in Alta Floresta, Brazil, Forest Policy and Economics, 116: 102178, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2020.102178.
  • Rodríguez L. O., E. Cisneros, T. Pequeño, M. T. Fuentes, and Y. Zinngrebe (2018): Building Adaptive Capacity in Changing Social-Ecological Systems: Integrating Knowledge in Communal Land-Use Planning in the Peruvian Amazon, Sustainability, 10(2): 511, https://doi.org/10.3390/su10020511.